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Poll Insights: Trump’s GOP Popularity Surges While DeSantis Falters

Poll Insights

Last updated on August 22nd, 2023 at 11:23 pm

In the wake of each new indictment, former President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that his influence within the Republican Party only strengthens. Recent poll Insights appear to support his assertion, with a significant proportion of Republicans expressing a desire for his return to the political arena. 

According to a fresh survey conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, a staggering 63% of Republicans now indicate their support for Trump’s potential run in the next presidential election.

This resurgence in Trump’s popularity within the GOP comes amidst an intriguing political landscape, where his rivals are experiencing contrasting fortunes. A noteworthy case is that of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whose recent poll numbers have taken a noticeable nosedive. 

The pattern of DeSantis’s decline echoes the trajectory of former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, both of whom were propelled by substantial financial backing from influential donors. Observers note that such campaigns, which lack genuine personal intent and are driven solely by shallow self-interest and policy linked to funding sources, often face a predisposition to failure.

Recent Polling Insights:

The Associated Press-NORC poll further highlights the upward shift in Trump’s favorability among Republicans, climbing from 55% in April to the current 70%. This growth in popularity is underlined by his remarkable 47-point lead over his closest contender in the latest Scott Rasmussen national survey

However, it’s worth noting that these poll results were collected from August 11th to 14th, before news of Trump’s indictment in Fulton County, Georgia broke. The margin of error for the poll’s full sample is reported at +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s remarkable ascent from 3% to 13% in Rasmussen’s polling over two months reflects the fluidity of voter preferences. Conversely, Governor DeSantis, who once enjoyed a stronger standing, has seen his numbers diminish by 7 percentage points since August 7-8, according to RMG Research Inc.

Beyond the numbers, opinions on DeSantis’s viability as a presidential candidate have shifted. Critics contend that he lacked the attributes required for a robust candidacy from the outset.

This sentiment has been compounded by revelations of his shortcomings and perceived lack of intelligence, eroding the carefully crafted image his handlers had fashioned over the past three years. The decline of DeSantis’s campaign is seen as a missed opportunity for Florida, where his tenure has brought about polarizing changes, particularly in the realm of social policies.

Amidst these, a recent poll from NPR of all places has brought attention to the preferences of independent voters. Trump’s strong lead over President Joe Biden among independent voters has sparked concern within the Democratic camp. While political focus often gravitates toward the ideological extremes, it is the centrist voters who ultimately hold the key to electoral success.

In a hypothetical 2024 general election contest, Biden (47%) and Trump (46%) are closely matched, among registered voters, nationally. Trump (48%) is +8 points over Biden (40%) among independents. Marist National Poll

Nevertheless, skepticism surrounds the credibility of polls, given recent electoral outcomes and public perception. With polls often seen as mere snapshots that can be influenced by various factors, their reliability is questioned by some.

Disclaimer: This article may contain the viewpoint and opinion of the author.

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