According to a recent analysis conducted by the political analytics website FiveThirtyEight, President Joe Biden’s approval ratings are lower than those of Donald Trump at the same stage in their respective presidencies. On June 11, Biden received a net approval rating of -14.6 percent, notably lower than the -10.9 percent recorded by Trump during a comparable timeframe. These findings have implications for the potential 2024 presidential election, as polling suggests Biden and Trump are frontrunners for their respective parties. The data provides a boost for Trump’s campaign following his indictment in New York and Florida, but it raises concerns among Democratic strategists.
FiveThirtyEight utilizes a technique called local polynomial regression to analyze polling data, which involves fitting a curve to the polls for each day. Mary Radcliffe, a senior research assistant at FiveThirtyEight, explained that the tracker goes beyond simple averaging of polls, taking into account factors such as polling company reliability, sample size, and survey frequency.
Comparison of Polling Data Reveals Biden’s Approval Ratings Lower Than Trump
The study also reveals that Biden’s approval ratings after 874 days in office are lower than all other post-war U.S. presidents, with the exception of Jimmy Carter. Only 41 percent of voters approve of Biden’s performance at this stage in the electoral cycle, compared to 42.3 percent for Trump, 47.4 percent for Barack Obama, and 61.5 percent for George W. Bush. Carter had an approval rating of just 28.8 percent at the same point in his presidency. These poor ratings have prompted political strategist Donna Brazile to call on Democrats to “wake up,” highlighting the fragmentation within the coalition that elected Biden.
Former Clinton pollster Mark Penn expressed concern about Biden’s poll numbers, stating that “with numbers like this, they’re looking at a potential Titanic at this point unless it changes.” Meanwhile, former congressional staffer Matt Robison suggested in an opinion piece that overpromising and underdelivering may have contributed to voter disillusionment and confusion among Democrats.
Newsweek has reached out to the White House and Donald Trump for comment on this matter. Trump was scheduled to be arraigned in a Miami courtroom last Tuesday, facing 37 counts related to the alleged mishandling of classified documents after his presidency ended. The arraignment was overseen by Cecilia M. Altonaga, chief judge for the Southern District of Florida, who has imposed restrictions on media coverage.
Trump has consistently denied any wrongdoing, characterizing the case against him as “election interference” and “a continuation of the greatest witch hunt of all time” on his Truth Social website.