In a recent exclusive poll conducted by NH Journal in collaboration with co-efficient, it has been revealed that the Republican base in New Hampshire continues to exhibit unwavering loyalty to former President Donald Trump. Despite his ongoing legal challenges, the poll results underscore Trump’s enduring popularity within the state’s GOP.
The survey, conducted by co-efficient polling and the New Hampshire Journal, unveils a challenging situation for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. For the first time since entering the race, DeSantis finds himself polling in the single digits, sharing the same position as former New Jersey governor Chris Christie.
The survey’s most notable revelation is the enduring dominance of former President Trump over the crowded field of GOP presidential contenders. Although Trump experienced a modest decline of four percentage points compared to the previous poll, he still commands a substantial 43 percent of the vote. This staggering lead of +34 percentage points over his closest rivals, DeSantis and Christie, reaffirms his stronghold within the party.
DeSantis’s support witnessed a decline of four percentage points from the earlier poll, conducted in mid-June, resulting in a tie with Christie. Despite Christie’s limited national polling success, his resonance in the Granite State is evident.
Key findings from the NH Journal poll include:
- Trump has consistently maintained his lead in both national and New Hampshire polls, even following his first criminal indictment in April.
- Trump enjoys a solid 43% support among NHGOP primary voters.
- Although Trump’s approval experienced a slight dip since mid-June, his lead over other Republican contenders remains substantial.
- A significant 62% of primary voters would stand by Trump even if he were convicted of a felony, while 57% would continue to support him even if he were incarcerated during the election.
- Merely 25% of GOP primary voters believe Trump committed a crime in relation to the January 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol riot. The majority, 75%, either believe in Trump’s innocence or consider his prosecution to be driven solely by his identity.
Co-efficient CEO Ryan Munce provided insight into the astonishing loyalty Trump commands among his supporters, stating, “As a pollster, I wonder if there is any other political figure in America who could generate this level of loyalty. It will be difficult for any Republican to peel away these voters.”
Jim Merrill, a seasoned GOP strategist, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing Trump's unwavering loyalty among his base. Merrill quoted, "To paraphrase Donald Trump, he could stand in the middle of Elm Street and shoot someone and not lose any voters."
Despite acknowledging Trump’s less than 50% primary support, Merrill suggested room for other primary challengers.
Michael Graham, the managing editor of New Hampshire Journal, countered the notion that New Hampshire Republicans are drifting away from Trump. He shared, “The talk from D.C. pundits that New Hampshire Republicans are drifting away from Donald Trump doesn’t match the reality we’re seeing on the ground. Talk to voters, and they have plenty of nice things to say about the other candidates, but, for the moment, they are sticking with Trump.”
The poll’s outcomes reflect the resilience of Trump’s influence within the Republican Party and set the stage for a competitive and closely watched primary race.