Last updated on September 11th, 2023 at 12:12 am
California Republicans are increasingly throwing their support behind former President Donald Trump, with a recent poll indicating a significant lead for Trump in the upcoming 2024 presidential primary.
Recent poll shows that California delegates favor Trump:
According to the latest Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll, 55% of likely Republican voters in California favor Trump as their presidential primary candidate. This represents an 11-percentage-point increase from three months ago, demonstrating Trump’s growing popularity despite ongoing legal issues.
Mark DiCamillo, Director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, attributed Trump’s surge in support to his closest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, losing ground among California voters. A mere 16% of California Republicans now back DeSantis, a significant decline from the 37% support he enjoyed in February. Notably, no other Republican candidate managed to garner more than single-digit support in the survey.
In a strategic move by California GOP officials, it was decided in July that any candidate securing more than 50% of the vote in the state’s presidential primary would receive all 169 of the party’s delegates—making California a crucial battleground for the Republican nomination.
If Trump performs well in the preceding primary contests before California’s primary on March 5, a victory in the Golden State could solidify his lead over other prominent contenders.
Despite Trump’s legal challenges, his dominance in the Republican primary resembles the typical performance of an incumbent seeking re-election rather than that of an open-seat candidate. Eric Schickler, co-director of IGS, noted the frustration among Trump’s opponents as his lead continues to grow amid legal issues.
Dan Schnur, a political messaging expert at USC and UC Berkeley, emphasized the importance of maintaining support among California’s GOP voters during the March 5 primary. He highlighted that while the state party appears to favor Trump, winning early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, coupled with California’s significant delegate count, could make Trump nearly unbeatable.
The Berkeley IGS Poll was conducted in both English and Spanish between August 24 and August 29, surveying 6,030 registered California voters online. This included 2,833 likely Democratic voters and 1,175 likely Republican voters.
Trump’s popularity will also be put to the test during the upcoming Fall 2023 Convention, scheduled from September 29 to October 1, 2023. On September 29, Trump, along with other candidates, is set to address the California GOP Convention in Anaheim. Notable attendees include DeSantis and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott.
More than a dozen other states poll their Republican delegates on the same day, potentially allowing Trump to secure a substantial number of votes toward clinching his third presidential nomination. For Democrats in California, polls show President Joe Biden is a lock for a second-term nomination.
To secure victory in California, Trump would need to garner support not only from within his party but also from independent voters and some of the state’s residents registered with third parties.
Disclaimer: This article may contain the viewpoint and opinion of the author.