Former President Donald Trump has taken the lead over President Joe Biden in recent polling data for the 2024 presidential election. This shift, coupled with changes in support among non-white voters, has raised important questions about the upcoming election and the reliability of poll aggregators.
RCP Poll shows Trump leads Biden
The latest RealClearPolitics RCP poll average shows Trump ahead of Biden by a very narrow margin of 0.4 percentage points, with Trump at 44.8% and Biden at 44.4%. This reversal is noteworthy because, during the entire 2020 presidential election cycle, Trump never led Biden nationally, not even once.
So, what factors are contributing to this unexpected change? First, there are significant challenges facing the Biden administration. Economic concerns, foreign policy issues, and the ongoing pandemic have created a challenging environment. In contrast to 2020 when Biden consistently held a lead, 2024 has seen Trump consistently leading or closely trailing Biden since April.
The reliability of aggregators like RCP, which blend data from multiple polls, is a subject of debate. While individual polls can vary due to methodology and sample size, RCP is often viewed as a barometer of public sentiment. It combines notable polls like those from The Wall Street Journal, CNN, and the New York Post.
The impact of changing support among non-white voters cannot be underestimated. According to a recent New York Times report, Biden’s lead over Trump among registered non-white voters has dropped to 53%, down significantly from the over 70% he secured in 2020. This decline highlights a challenge for the Biden administration in retaining support among this demographic.
Yet, there is a glimmer of hope for Biden. The Times’ data suggests that he could potentially regain some of the lost support by winning back voters who previously favored him. However, this potential rebound comes with a stark warning – the Democratic party has witnessed a consistent decline in non-white voter support over the past decade, even during racially charged debates.
Comparing 2020 to 2024, the shift is undeniable. In 2020, Trump led Biden in just one national poll by a single point. In the 2024 cycle, Trump has surpassed Biden in five of the last 12 national polls. This significant shift challenges the notion that Trump cannot win a re-election bid and positions him as a formidable contender.
Meanwhile, Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL), seen by some as the establishment GOP’s great hope, is trailing Biden by a national average of 3.8 points, failing to surpass him even once in the last 12 national polls. This highlights that, at least for now, Trump is better positioned than DeSantis to take on Biden.
Moreover, Trump’s 2020 performance is a testament to his appeal. He garnered 74.2 million votes, a remarkable seven million more than the previous record set by Barack Obama in 2012. This raises questions about whether any Republican can replicate such an electoral feat.
If these trends persist, the 2024 elections could witness the weakest performance by a Democratic leader among Black and Hispanic voters since Walter Mondale in 1984, according to The New York Times.
As we examine these shifting poll numbers, it’s evident that the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be highly competitive. Trump’s resurgence, changing support among non-white voters, and the reliability of poll aggregators like RCP all add layers of complexity to this political landscape. The strategies and challenges for both Trump and Biden will be crucial in the coming months as they vie for the American public’s support.
Disclaimer: This article may contain the viewpoint and opinion of the author.